Creation of a new government, in line with widespread expectations, has not turned out to be an easy task. The opposition, including post-solidarity elements, rebuilt its position thanks to Miller’s incompetence.
 |
Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka |
|
JANUSZ ROLICKI
Candidate for Prime Minister Marek Belka recently said that Poland’s strength is currently the economy, while its weakness is politics. It is hard to deny that this opinion is not pure fancy. In the first quarter, Poland grew impressively - growth per capita was the highest in Europe and reached 6 percent – although the political environment was consumed by a government crisis. This crisis is a legacy of the splintering of groups such as the social democratic party. Under the leadership of Leszek Miller, post-communist SLD achieved the largest election win in the Third Republic in the fall of 2001, earning 41 percent of the vote in parliamentary elections. After this victory, it effortlessly formed a coalition government with the peasant party and prepared itself to rule the country – not only in the course of one term but at the very least two. It was the total collapse of Solidarity Election Action (AWS), the previous ruling party, which gave rise to such optimistic forecasts for the post-communist. Its representatives were absent from the parliament, creating a free range of movement for the left-wing grouping. The legacy of former Prime Minister Jerzy Buzek’s cabinet was a mere half a percent of economic growth and poorly implemented reforms of the administrational, retirement, health care and educational systems.
Leszek Miller, while taking up the reins of government in October 2001, could feel like a true victor. Meanwhile not even two years have passed since support for his party fell drastically and after the 30th month in power, it began to oscillate at the election threshold of 5 percent. Thus Poland has experienced a real repetition of the past. The moral decomposition of these quite recent winners has reached the level of defeat that swallowed AWS. You might even say that the Polish term of office should be shortened from four to two years. The source of falling support for the government, according to observers, can be found in numerous economic and corruption scandals, the growth of unemployment – it belongs to the highest rates in Europe at 20 percent – as well as cost-cutting reforms which were introduced to streamline the state. The fact is that the leftist government decided to fix state finances mainly at the cost of the poorest members of society. Economist praised the prime minister for this move while the party’s traditional electorate turned its back on the left.
This created serious complications on the Polish political scene. On one hand the prime minister is hard to dislodge; the opposition, in accordance with the Constitution, can remove him only by means of the aptly named vote of confidence. In other words, by choosing a new prime minister who enjoys a definitive majority of deputy votes. That, in light of recent parliamentary arithmetic, was completely impossible. Only the secession from Miller’s party of a group of deputies led by former Speaker of the Sejm Marek Borowski was able to destabilize the political situation to such an extent that the prime minister, in losing his majority, felt compelled to submit his resignation.
Creation of a new government, in line with widespread expectations, has not turned out to be an easy task. The opposition, including post-solidarity elements, rebuilt its position thanks to Miller’s incompetence, while populist groupings as well as Borowski’s dissidents are calling for early elections. Their opponents are post-communists from SLD and numerous dissidents from nearly every party. The latter have created a new parliamentary club that includes 17 individuals and two deputy groupings. While supporters of early elections count on successes at the voting urn, SLD deputies as well as refugees from other parties place a higher premium on finishing the term. This is connected with the receipt of their hefty allowances and deputy salaries. They make up a coalition of fear, so to speak, which is even more justified by the fact that half of former deputies do not fare well without their parliamentary identification and…willingly take advantage of the protection offered by the Polish Sejm.
In such a situation it is not hard to understand why the president’s candidate, Prof. Marek Belka, the two-time former deputy prime minister and finance minister in leftist governments, did not gain the parliament’s acceptance on his first attempt in May. Today he is not prime minister, although, together with his government, Belka had just begun to fulfill the duties of a prime minister. He will have two more tries. It cannot be ruled out that the first will be a complete failure since SLD, under pressure from former member and current President Aleksander Kwaśniewski, is unlikely to nominate its own candidate in the Sejm. Then the third and final attempt. If, at that time, (in mid-June) a prime minister is not chosen, the president will be forced to dissolve the parliament and announce new elections.
The president is counting that it won’t come to that and that Prime Minister Belka will be able to rule the country effectively for the rest of the year. This is the only hope for the so-called party of fear, made up of deputies who are determined to stay afloat until the end of their term. It is telling that the new, or rather candidate for, prime minister is praised discretely in the Sejm. He is appreciated for his professionalism and in-depth knowledge of the Polish economy. Despite this, calculations are dominated, as in any parliamentary democracy, by party interests.
Poland is in a very tangled situation. The current defeat suffered by left-wing post-communists temporarily provided Andrzej Lepper’s populist party with a boost good enough for first place in the polls. This agricultural technician is a typical self-made man. His party, Samoobrona (Self Defense), was created first and foremost thanks to years of protest campaigns. By virtue of radical socialism, he has gained many SLD voters who are disappointed with the former prime minister. Ideologically, Lepper’s party is reminiscent of a leftist mix – fascist with a heavy emphasis on national values. In an unified Europe – if he came to power – Poland would be turned into a real laughingstock. Happily, in May, an outflow of supporters for the party was observed and the latest polls reveal that Lepper no longer has 30 percent support. If these numbers, from as many as three polling centers, last and Samoobrona’s support falls permanently below 20 percent, it will be good news for Poland.
Thanks to Lepper’s difficulties, the Citizen’s Platform (PO) – a post-solidarity party – has returned to first place in the election polls. Together with the Law and Justice party (PiS), led by the Kaczyński brothers - former, although now estranged, associates of Lech Wałęsa - PO will likely create a new government.
In June we will discover whether elections will take place in this year or the next. The president still wants to give Marek Belka a chance.
Janusz Rolicki
